Amrita Narlikar on the restructuring of the global economy

Amrita Narlikar is a professor of political science at Universität Hamburg and president of the German Institute for World and Space Research (GIGA) in Hamburg. Initially from India, she is a distinguished worldwide fellow of the Indian Affiliation of Worldwide Research (IAIS). We requested Amrita Narlikar three questions in regards to the conflict towards Ukraine and its penalties for globalisation.

Professor Narlikar, the assault on Ukraine initiated by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has made world financial interdependencies very seen. Are we seeing the insidious finish of globalisation?
Maybe, if the present challenges are successfully managed, we won’t see an finish to globalisation, however a rebooted model of it. Globalisation has been a pressure for the great, as an illustration, in serving to increase hundreds of thousands out of abject poverty. However too many students and policy-makers have underestimated its darkish aspect. Including to issues about inequality and marginalisation of weaker actors, we at the moment are seeing the emergence of a world the place the ties of financial interdependence are getting “weaponised”. On this world of geoeconomic competitors, there are unprecedented trade-offs between prosperity and safety. To handle these successfully, we’d like a realignment of provide chains, particularly in strategically necessary sectors, and in addition a basic reform of the principles of multilateralism.

Will the worldwide economic system as soon as once more crumble into particular person blocs: the seven main industrial nations and democracies together with the EU, a sphere of affect dominated by China, an isolating Russia and an more and more emancipated India?
If the safety dangers posed by financial change are addressed in an efficient method, we’d like not get the division of the world into blocs. A very good-case state of affairs can be a carefully-managed diversification of provide chains, with greater ranges of integration amongst like-minded companions and allies. This diversification won’t be cost-free. But when we refuse to acknowledge the risks posed by the previous mannequin of globalisation, we are going to run into even greater issues. The difficulties that Germany has encountered in disentangling itself from its dependence on Russia for vitality provides is a living proof; India’s dependence on Russia for army provides is one other. These are robust classes; the identical errors shouldn’t be repeated with respect to China. Realignment of provide chains must be taking place now, and the EU and India needs to be working intently collectively on a wide range of shared issues.

The China-Taiwan battle is simmering within the background, and the West has even nearer financial ties to China than to Russia. What’s in retailer for us?
That is an pressing second for us to be working intently with the US, and in addition like-minded democracies within the World South which might be equally involved about authoritarian advance on their borders. India’s refusal to take a powerful stance towards Russia dissatisfied many; whereas the frustration is comprehensible, India’s behaviour shouldn’t have come as a shock given its large dependence (50-80%) on army provides from Russia. There’s a tragic irony to this – by not standing as much as Russia, India is inadvertently additionally strengthening authoritarian China’s hand. By deepening our cooperation with democracies like India – on the inexperienced transition, the digital transformation, and in addition on delicate (dual-use) know-how – we shall be performing in not solely our pursuits but additionally supporting our shared values. The invitation by Olaf Scholz to Narendra Modi for the G7 Summit was a sign in the fitting path. However rather more must be completed.

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